ufc 77

UFC 77 Preview
"To err is human, to forgive divine."

This year, I've proven to be very human with my MMA predictions. Thankfully, however, I have some of the most divine readers in the world. Besides, I argue, what's the fun of reading Randy Couture's picks, unless you're a gambler? Couture takes all the fun out of the whole prognostication business by being so prescient with his predictions. With all that said, please don't go anywhere near a bookie with my picks.

So, let's go straight to my preview of UFC 77, a card which promises to be one of the more intriguing of the year.

Middleweight title: Champion Anderson Silva vs. Challenger Rich Franklin

Most fans remember the first Silva-Franklin fight just about a year ago at UFC 64. Silva dominated that encounter, controlling Franklin in a Muay Thai clinch and pounding the former champion with a series of knees to the body and finishing Franklin off with knees and kicks to the head.

Since then, Silva has continued to demonstrate his impressive all-around skills, first by getting Travis Lutter to submit in a non-title fight and then defeating Nate Marquardt by ground-and-pound in his first official title defense.

Franklin has not looked nearly as able. While he pounded an overmatched Jason MacDonald in his first fight back after losing the belt, Franklin had quite a bit of trouble with Yushin Okami in his next fight. Okami was very passive in the first two rounds of the fight, but when he became aggressive in the third round, he was almost able to get Franklin to submit. I believe that Okami would have won that fight had he been more aggressive earlier on in the fight.

Tonight, I simply don't believe Franklin will be able to handle Silva's all-around superior game. Whether or not Franklin has learned how to deal with Silva's clinch is almost irrelevant. Silva has too many other weapons.

Prediction: Silva by TKO in the second round

Heavyweight: Tim Sylvia vs. Brandon Vera

This is a fantastic matchup between two fighters now poised to challenge for the UFC heavyweight title after Randy Couture's abrupt resignation from the promotion close to 10 days ago. The last time we saw Sylvia in action, he lost the heavyweight title to Couture in Columbus, Ohio in March. Since then Sylvia has had back surgery, correcting an ailment he claims hindered him in the Couture fight. Sylvia also promises to return to his old form of defeating fighters by knockout rather than being content with five-round decisions.

Vera, a local product who came up through Lloyd Irvin's gym in Camp Springs, is one of the division's most promising fighters. However, Vera hasn't fought in close to a year. His last fight was a dominating performance against former heavyweight champ Frank Mir in 2006. Since then, Vera has been embroiled in a dispute with his management at City Boxing in San Diego (which Vera has since left) -- a dispute that Vera claims is the reason he didn't re-sign with UFC earlier.

This fight is a match-up between the biggest (Sylvia) and the smallest (Vera) fighters in the division. Both are outstanding standing up, but I believe Sylvia's reach and height will be too much for the athletic, charismatic Vera. While Vera has been impressive and is currently unbeaten in MMA action, Sylvia is his first true test. From everything that's being said, the winner of this fight will fight for the heavyweight title next.

Prediction: Sylvia by KO in the second round

Light heavyweight: Stephan Bonnar vs. Eric Schafer

First, let me come out and say that Schafer is a contributor over at MMA Madness and that I've gotten to know him and his brother Nathan through e-mail correspondences over the last few months. Schafer isn't just a witty, articulate fighter who at one time aspired to a career in medicine. He is also an outstanding up-and-coming MMA fighter who has worked well on his ground game (see his arm triangle choke against Rob MacDonald at UFC 62).

However, Schafer's last fight came at UFC 66 and it was a loss to Michael Bisping, a fight Schafer says he came into injured. The injury bug struck again when Schafer broke a rib training for his UFC 71 fight against Sean Salmon. So, this will be Schafer's first test of 2007.

Bonnar, on the other hand, served a nine-month suspension for testing positive last year for performance-enhancing drugs at UFC 62. He returned to action at UFC 73 and was impressive, especially on the ground, in submitting Mike Nickels. Apparently, Bonnar has taken the last year to work on his game and move beyond being a brawler.

This promises to be an exciting fight, but I believe Schafer has more tools in his toolbox at this point in his career.

Prediction: Schafer by submission in the third round

Middleweight: Yushin Okami vs. Jason MacDonald

The winner of this matchup could very well be fighting for the title in his next fight, which makes UFC's decision to put this on the dark portion of the card rather strange. Both fighters have lost to Franklin this year, but I think Okami came very close to pulling a victory out. Both fighters have also won every one of their other fights in UFC's weakest division.

MacDonald is very well-rounded and has a superior striking game to Okami. Okami is very strong, however, and loves to ground-and-pound. The major knock on Okami is that his fights are boring. However, I think Okami has learned his lesson from the Franklin fight and I believe he will start fast and eventually finish off MacDonald.

Prediction: Okami by TKO (ground-and-pound) in the second round

For the rest of tonight's card, please visit UFC.com.

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On a personal note, I would like to let my readers know that this will be my final MMA preview for Baltimoresun.com. Starting next week, I will be doing much of my MMA writing for Sports Illustrated (SI.com). However, please come back to Baltimoresun.com tomorrow for my UFC 77 recap (which will also be my final recap for The Sun). CINCINNATI - Ultimate Fighting Championship president Dana White uses Stephan Bonnar as Exhibit A for the consequences of steroid use.

And with good reason.
Following an August 2006 loss to Forrest Griffin, Bonnar was suspended nine months by the Nevada State Athletic Commission for a positive test. Bonnar says he lost roughly $100,000 in fight and sponsorship money as well as a $20,000 announcing job with Spike TV. He also was fined $5,000.

"Yeah, life sucked for a while," Bonnar told FOXSports.com on Thursday. "My whole world turned upside down."

Now reinstated, Bonnar can continue his comeback by defeating fellow light-heavyweight Eric Schafer on Saturday night's UFC 77 pay-per-view show in Cincinnati. Bonnar, though, knows he may never recover from the blow to his reputation.


Don't miss anything...

Alex Marvez will be blogging live Saturday from UFC 77



Bonnar talked openly about his mistake before his return bout ― a July submission victory over Mike Nickels ― in hopes the subject would fade. But like with other high-profile mixed martial arts fighters who have gotten caught, Bonnar continues to face steroid scrutiny.

"I just talked to Tim Sylvia," Bonnar said of the UFC heavyweight who sat next to him during a Thursday news conference. "He said, �t's been four years for me (since a failed test) and I'm still hearing about it.'"

Bonnar, 30, tested positive for a steroid (boldenone) designed strictly for veterinary use in horses. Bonnar says he took the drug hoping to accelerate recovery from an elbow injury. When he started using the steroid, Bonnar said he didn't know UFC promoters would ask him to fight six weeks later in a rematch against Griffin.








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Rather than decline the opportunity, Bonnar accepted knowing he could fail the post-fight steroid test. Bonnar then suffered a 12-inch cut over one of his eyes during training and broke his right hand 45 seconds into the fight. All three judges gave a 30-27 decision to Griffin.

"Karma caught up with me a little early," Bonnar said. "It was like a black cloud was over me."

It started to pour after the positive test.

"Everyone after that called me a cheater and said I wanted to get bigger and stronger," said Bonnar, whose size (6-foot-4 and 205 pounds) already made him one of UFC's largest light-heavyweights. "But both mentally and physically, I was pretty weak for that fight. That definitely affected my performance."

Bonnar's bloody three-round decision loss to Griffin in April 2005 is considered one of the watershed moments in UFC history. The bout marked the finale of the inaugural Ultimate Fighter reality series, with the winner receiving a UFC contract. But Bonnar was so impressive in a losing effort that he too landed a UFC deal. Bonnar and Griffin also became instant stars, as more than 2.6 million viewers watched the first live UFC card presented on cable television (Spike TV).

Bonnar's charisma and exciting fighting style could help him eventually overcome the steroid stigma. He has an April 2006 victory over Keith Jardine, who upset light-heavyweight star Chuck Liddell on last month's UFC 76 pay-per-view show. Bonnar (13-4) also has a supporter in White, who gave him a second chance.

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"You want to talk about a guy whose life came crashing down?" White said. "He was on top of the world, then he doesn't fight for a year and was just flat broke. Now, he's fighting his way back up and getting back in the mix again. He's handled this like a man and I respect that."

After coming under media scrutiny for steroid use among its fighters, UFC has held three consecutive shows without a failed test. White pumped his fist in the air in celebration when reminded of that but said steroids will remain an issue in sports "long after we're dead."

"Back in the early UFC and in PRIDE and K-1, they never, ever tested anyone," said Bonnar, referring to two Japanese-based MMA promotions. "Even a couple years ago, (UFC) would only test one or two fighters on the card. People got busted so now they're testing everyone. People are realizing they can't get away with it."

Alex Marvez is a senior NFL writer who also covers mixed martial arts for FOXSports.com.
Franklin, a 33-year-old West Chester Township resident, just happens to be one of the best hand-to-hand fighters in the world. He is scheduled to fight Brazil's Anderson Silva tonight at U.S. Bank Arena for the Ultimate Fighting Championship middleweight world title.


At Champps, all 15 televisions, including two giant screens and the restaurant speakers, will be tuned to the fight.

"It'll be like a concert in here," general manager Dave Thompson said, adding that Champps has been showing UFC fights for the past seven months. "Whenever Rich Franklin fights, it's a larger crowd. Mostly younger men, ages 21 to 40. But we get families with kids who know him in here to watch, too."

More than just the people of West Chester, however, are celebrating Franklin and the emerging mixed martial arts sport sanctioned by Ultimate Fighting Championship.

His fight, labeled "UFC 77: Hostile Territory," is expected to draw 15,000 fans in person and millions more watching on pay-per-view television. Local notables including Reds slugger Adam Dunn, a big UFC fan, are expected to attend.

The last time Franklin and Ultimate Fighting Championship put on an event in Ohio, in Columbus, they set North American attendance records for the sport with more than 19,000 fans.

"We love Ohio," UFC president Dana White said. "This place sells out faster than any place we go to."

Franklin, a former math teacher at Oak Hills High School, is starting to notice the attention locally. He left the region for the mountains of Wyoming last month, for instance, in order to train for the fight without distractions. He tells tales of elderly women stopping him in restaurants to say they saw him on television and former Oak Hills students thanking him for inspiring them to pursue life goals.

"Most if not all my kids look up to and really admire Franklin," said Oak Hills football coach Kurry Commins. "He is a popular visitor and guest back at Oak Hills."

The University of Cincinnati and Harrison High School graduate has turned fighting into a six-figure career. He's a famous athlete, even if he's not entirely comfortable with the idea of comparing himself to Ken Griffey Jr. or Carson Palmer.

"I consider myself normal, still like going to festivals and stuff," Franklin said. "I did a charity golf outing here in Cincinnati. And they had a dinner where Chad Johnson was the emcee. And when I saw him, I was like, 'Oh man, Chad Johnson.' And I wanted to go over and meet Chad Johnson. Maybe he feels the same way about me, maybe he doesn't. I honestly still think of myself as a guy who grew up in Harrison and didn't even start on the high school football team."

But people in Greater Cincinnati are increasingly excited to see Franklin fight. Sports bars throughout the city will be showing the fight, which won't begin until well after 10 p.m.

Nationally, UFC is putting up big numbers. "UFC Fight Night," the regular Ultimate Fighting Championship show on the cable channel Spike TV, is one of the most-watched cable shows. Seventy-four percent more viewers watched "UFC Fight Night" on Sept. 19 than a Major League Baseball game between the Reds and Cubs on ESPN.

Fighters like Franklin are popular, White said, because suburban television viewers and ticket-buyers can identify with them.

"These fighters aren't from the mean streets," White said. "They're kids from suburbia who came from middle- to upper-class homes who graduated from college."

Franklin's earnings and fame from fighting have all but placed him out of the middle class nowadays. He lives on a fairly secluded plot of 13 acres in West Chester. But on that one day per week when he allows himself to stray from a strict nutritional diet, he and his wife, Beth, make their way to Big Dog's in West Chester, where they can peacefully share a supreme pizza.

"It's not far from my house," Franklin said. "We're good friends, and I honestly believe it's the best pizza place in the city. They're more friends than fans."